Belgian Jupiler League Week 25 [23-9-4 |+44.258 units | +36.65% ROI]

Costanza · Mar 7, 2008

Odds are set quite sharp at this stage of the league. Had a long break even stretch last season during this period so I'm taking it easy waiting for some nice situations to come up at near the end of the season. Should normally have 1 play for the weekend

Season 07/08 Record on TheRX:
Picks = 36
Won / Lost / Push = 23 / 9 / 4 (71.8 % Winners)
Units Bet = 118 units
Units Return = 161.258 units
Average Stake = 3.30 units
Profit = + 44.258 Units
ROI = +36.65 %

Jupiler League Betting Record Week 24: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 23: 0-1-1, - 2,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 22: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 21: 1-0-0, + 3,810 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 20: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 19: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 18: 1-0-0,+ 5,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 17: 1-0-0,+ 2,400 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 16: 1-0-0,+ 5,150 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 15: 1-0-0,+ 3,060 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 14: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 13: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 12: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 11: 1-0-0,+ 4,115 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 10: 1-0-1,+ 1,640 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 09: 1-1-0,+ 1,290 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 08: 0-1-1,- 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 07: 2-0-0,+ 4,947 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 06: 2-1-0,+ 4,634 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 05: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 04: 2-1-0, + 1,983 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 03: 2-0-0, + 8,800 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 02: 3-1-0, + 3,665 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 01: 2-0-1, + 3,714 Units
--------------------------------------------------------------
Belgian Cup Betting Record 2007/2008: 2-0-0, + 4,050 Units
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-> http://belgianleague.blogabet.com

Costanza · Mar 8, 2008

Pick 37: Total Amount of Goals during 6 Saturday Matches (Under 15) (3 Units) @ 1.833

There are 6 matches being played this Saturday Night and I see enough reasons to believe there won't be more then 15 goals scored in total.
To start the Belgian League is at the moment in a serious under trend.

week 24: 20 Goals | 14 Goals in 6 Saturday Matches
week 23: 8 Goals | 5 Goals in 6 Saturday Matches
week 22: 21 Goals | 10 Goals in 6 Saturday Matches
week 21: 29 Goals | -- more Saturday matches --
week 20: 11 Goals | 7 Goals in 6 Saturday Matches

The reason for this under trend is mainly because there is a lack of quality in the offense in the Belgian League.
In order not to lose this bet the average amount of goals needs to be under 2.5 goals. Looking closer into the matches and the goal lines this number seems to be set just a bit too high.

* Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo: Stopped riding the Cercle Brugge train just in time, after the impressive first season half they now seem to be in a downtrend. Their top striker De Sutter is still out with injury and their 2nd most important striker Iachtchouk is suspended for this match along with Hasi. Westerlo is also not able to start with their best line-up. Dirar and Van den Eede will most likely be both out (they kept practice to running). Both teams are in the top 7 of best defensive teams so far the season. Line is set at "UNDER 2.5 @ 1.870"
* Brussels vs Lokeren: Lokeren is by far the biggest 'under' team in the league. 20 out of 24 matches went under 2.5 goals! they have a solid defense and lack quality on the offense. Brussels also a team that's unable to score a lot. Playing on the pitch in Brussels usually doesn't provide very exciting matches. Line is set at "UNDER 2 @ 2.050"
* FC Dender vs Kv Mechelen: 2 teams who are not yet safe from the regelation zone, Sylla is still doubtfull and 2 other strikers Dufoor en De Pever are out for this match. Defender Neva will be back in the team since long after after his injury. Line is set at "UNDER 2.5 @ 1.833"
* Genk vs Bergen: Genk not what it used to be, they have had a whole lot of problems to find the goal this season. Bergen should have a little more confidence on the offense now that Damahne is back. They need to take points in their fight for regelation. I'm expection a close game. Line is set at "UNDER 2.5 @ 1.926"
* Moeskroen vs Club Brugge: Club Brugge has also been an under team this year. Without playing really good they still manage to win their amount of matches. Moeskroen is a completely different team compared to the start of the season. They are without a win since a long time, Important Striker tomou has got Malaria. At Brugge, Van heerden who's the player bringing the offensive sparks is injured. Without him the team usually not much inspired on the offense. Line is set at "UNDER 2.25 @ 2.05"
* Zulte-Waregem vs Roeselare: Both teams have gotten a lot of criticism over the months for playing with 11 players in defense. Not sure how it will turn out when they play against each other though. Line is set at "Under 2.5 @ 1.909"

Overall over the 6 matches the odds are set more to Under 2.5, there are enough teams who are short of strikers which should continue the under trend of the last couple weeks in the Jupiler League with no special weather reports. There is always the chance of 1 match with an extreme amount of goals killing the under, chances should be at least around 57%-58% to stay under the total.

So 3/5 on Under 15 Goals @ 1.833 (Pinnacle)

Costanza · Mar 8, 2008

Bet pushed, exactly 15 after raining goals everywhere at the start (6 goals In first 15' )
probably one of the better bets this season, would have hit 80% of the time, but will settle with the push.

Still concidering 1 bet for tomorrow, but unsure yet.
will update record later on..

2white · Mar 8, 2008

I picked 3 of those games and hit a parlay !!! Thank you very much, you have been outstanding for a very long time:money8:: always chosen picks !!! Big Props to you , this one made it up for the $$$ I lost w/ chelsea. For tomorrow I will check out Mad Actuarian picks, both of you are GREAT !!!
Thank You again !!!

Costanza · Mar 10, 2008

Season 07/08 Updated Record on TheRX:
Picks = 37
Won / Lost / Push = 23 / 9 / 5 (71.8 % Winners)
Units Bet = 121 units
Units Return = 164.258 units
Average Stake = 3.25 units
Profit = + 44.258 Units
ROI = +35.75 %

Jupiler League Betting Record Week 25: 0-0-1, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 24: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 23: 0-1-1, - 2,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 22: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 21: 1-0-0, + 3,810 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 20: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 19: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 18: 1-0-0,+ 5,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 17: 1-0-0,+ 2,400 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 16: 1-0-0,+ 5,150 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 15: 1-0-0,+ 3,060 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 14: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 13: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 12: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 11: 1-0-0,+ 4,115 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 10: 1-0-1,+ 1,640 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 09: 1-1-0,+ 1,290 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 08: 0-1-1,- 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 07: 2-0-0,+ 4,947 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 06: 2-1-0,+ 4,634 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 05: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 04: 2-1-0, + 1,983 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 03: 2-0-0, + 8,800 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 02: 3-1-0, + 3,665 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 01: 2-0-1, + 3,714 Units
--------------------------------------------------------------
Belgian Cup Betting Record 2007/2008: 2-0-0, + 4,050 Units
--------------------------------------------------------------
-> http://belgianleague.blogabet.com

should be back next weekend